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Vehicle Sales

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

 

Latest Release

Dec 03, 2018

Actual

17.49M

Forecast

17.30M

Previous

17.57M

Total Vehicle Sales measures the annualized number of new vehicles sold domestically in the reported month. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also correlated to consumer confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Autodata Corp.

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

 

 

20142016201820152017201968101214161820201020142018

03/01/2014

Actual15.40M

Forecast16.00M

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Dec 03, 2018 15:30 17.49M 17.30M 17.57M
Nov 01, 2018 14:30 17.57M 17.10M 17.44M
Oct 02, 2018 14:30 17.44M 16.78M 16.72M
Sep 04, 2018 14:30 16.72M 16.70M 16.77M
Aug 01, 2018 14:30 16.77M 17.10M 17.47M
Jul 03, 2018 14:30 17.47M 17.00M 16.91M
Jun 01, 2018 14:30 16.91M 17.00M 17.15M
May 01, 2018 14:30 17.15M 17.10M 17.48M
Apr 03, 2018 14:30 17.48M 16.90M 17.08M
Mar 01, 2018 15:00 17.08M 17.20M 17.16M
Feb 01, 2018 15:00 17.16M 17.20M 17.85M
Jan 03, 2018 15:30 17.85M 17.50M 17.48M

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/total-vehicle-sales-85

 

GDP

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

Latest Release

Nov 28, 2018

Actual

3.5%

Forecast

3.6%

Previous

3.5%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
Frequency: Released monthly. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, second release and Final. Both the advance the second release are tagged as preliminary in the economic calendar.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

 

30/04/2014

Actual0.1%

Forecast1.2%

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Dec 21, 2018 (Q3) 08:30 4.2% 3.5%
Nov 28, 2018 (Q3) 08:30 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%
Oct 26, 2018 (Q3) 07:30 3.5% 3.3% 4.2%
Sep 27, 2018 (Q2) 07:30 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Aug 29, 2018 (Q2) 07:30 4.2% 4.0% 4.1%
Jul 27, 2018 (Q2) 07:30 4.1% 4.1% 2.2%
Jun 28, 2018 (Q1) 07:30 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%
May 30, 2018 (Q1) 07:30 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%
Apr 27, 2018 (Q1) 07:30 2.3% 2.0% 2.3%
Mar 28, 2018 (Q4) 07:30 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
Feb 28, 2018 (Q4) 08:30 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
Jan 26, 2018 (Q4) 08:30 2.6% 3.0% 3.2%

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

Latest Release

Nov 28, 2018

Actual

3.5%

Forecast

3.6%

Previous

3.5%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
Frequency: Released monthly. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, second release and Final. Both the advance the second release are tagged as preliminary in the economic calendar.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

 

30/04/2014

Actual0.1%

Forecast1.2%

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Dec 21, 2018 (Q3) 08:30   4.2% 3.5%
Nov 28, 2018 (Q3) 08:30 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%
Oct 26, 2018 (Q3) 07:30 3.5% 3.3% 4.2%
Sep 27, 2018 (Q2) 07:30 4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
Aug 29, 2018 (Q2) 07:30 4.2% 4.0% 4.1%
Jul 27, 2018 (Q2) 07:30 4.1% 4.1% 2.2%
Jun 28, 2018 (Q1) 07:30 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%
May 30, 2018 (Q1) 07:30 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%
Apr 27, 2018 (Q1) 07:30 2.3% 2.0% 2.3%
Mar 28, 2018 (Q4) 07:30 2.9% 2.7% 2.5%
Feb 28, 2018 (Q4) 08:30 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%
Jan 26, 2018 (Q4) 08:30 2.6% 3.0% 3.2%

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-375

 

Existing Home Sales

U.S. Existing Home Sales

Latest Release

Nov 21, 2018

Actual

5.22M

Forecast

5.20M

Previous

5.15M

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:National Association of Realto…

U.S. Existing Home Sales

 

2015201420162017201811.522.533.544.555.566.519802000

19/12/2013

Actual4.82M

Forecast5.03M

Revised From4.90M

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Dec 19, 2018 (Nov) 10:00   5.20M 5.22M
Nov 21, 2018 (Oct) 10:00 5.22M 5.20M 5.15M
Oct 19, 2018 (Sep) 09:00 5.15M 5.30M 5.33M
Sep 20, 2018 (Aug) 09:00 5.34M 5.35M 5.34M
Aug 22, 2018 (Jul) 09:00 5.34M 5.44M 5.38M
Jul 23, 2018 (Jun) 09:00 5.38M 5.46M 5.41M
Jun 20, 2018 (May) 09:00 5.43M 5.52M 5.45M
May 24, 2018 (Apr) 09:00 5.46M 5.56M 5.60M
Apr 23, 2018 (Mar) 09:00 5.60M 5.55M 5.54M
Mar 21, 2018 (Feb) 09:00 5.54M 5.41M 5.38M
Feb 21, 2018 (Jan) 10:00 5.38M 5.61M 5.56M
Jan 24, 2018 (Dec) 10:00 5.57M 5.72M 5.78M

 

CPI Year over Year

Consumer Price Index (YoY) – United States

Last Release

Wed, Nov 14 2018
13:30 GMT

2.5%

Actual

2.5%

Consensus

2.3%

Previous

Next Release

Wed, Dec 12 2018
13:30 GMT

6 Days
19 Hours
34 Minutes
14 Seconds
The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
  • Sector: Consumption & Inflation

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/6f846eaa-9a12-43ab-930d-f059069c6646

 

Jobless Claims

The numbers: The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since the summer of 1973, reinforcing a downward trend in layoffs that’s likely to continue to set fresh lows in the months ahead.

So-called continuing claims fell by 8,000 to 1.62 million at the end of October, marking the lowest level since July 28, 1973. These claims reflect people who recently lost their jobs and are already receiving benefits.

The number of people who applied to receive benefits, meanwhile, fell slightly in early November to remaining near the lowest level in decades.

Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, dipped by 1,000 to 214,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 3, the government said Thursday. That was a bit higher than the 210,000 forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch.

The more stable monthly average of claims declined by 250 to 213,750.

Read: There’s still more jobs available than unemployed Americans

What happened: The level of layoffs in the U.S. have been falling for years amid a sustained surge in hiring that’s pulled the unemployment rate down to a 48-year low of 3.7%.

Initial claims have been have been below 220,000 for four and a half months, a remarkably long stretch of extremely low layoffs.

Read: It ’s prime time for Americans 25 to 54 years old

Big picture: The strongest labor market in decades is powering a U.S. economy that’s likely to set a record for the longest expansion ever by next year. The shrinking pool of available labor is also forcing companies to pay higher wages and benefits to attract workers, a good thing for Americans after years of slow pay growth.

Also read: Wages rise at fastest pace in nine years as U.S. adds 250,000 jobs in October

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.32% rose slightly in Thursday trades, but the S&P 500 SPX, -1.97% traded lower. Stocks soared the day before in the wake of the 2018 elections that split power between Democrats and Republicans. The outcome suggests a divided Washington won’t be able to do much to help or hinder businesses in the next few years.

The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% continued to creep higher and sat near 3.22%, just short of a seven-year high. Yields have been rising in anticipation of higher U.S. interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/number-of-americans-getting-unemployment-benefits-falls-to-lowest-level-since-july-1973-2018-11-08

Vehicle Sales

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

 

Latest Release

Dec 03, 2018

Actual

17.49M

Forecast

17.30M

Previous

17.57M

Total Vehicle Sales measures the annualized number of new vehicles sold domestically in the reported month. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also correlated to consumer confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Autodata Corp.

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

 

 

20142016201820152017201968101214161820201020142018

03/01/2014

Actual15.40M

Forecast16.00M

Release Date Time Actual Forecast Previous
Dec 03, 2018 15:30 17.49M 17.30M 17.57M
Nov 01, 2018 14:30 17.57M 17.10M 17.44M
Oct 02, 2018 14:30 17.44M 16.78M 16.72M
Sep 04, 2018 14:30 16.72M 16.70M 16.77M
Aug 01, 2018 14:30 16.77M 17.10M 17.47M
Jul 03, 2018 14:30 17.47M 17.00M 16.91M
Jun 01, 2018 14:30 16.91M 17.00M 17.15M
May 01, 2018 14:30 17.15M 17.10M 17.48M
Apr 03, 2018 14:30 17.48M 16.90M 17.08M
Mar 01, 2018 15:00 17.08M 17.20M 17.16M
Feb 01, 2018 15:00 17.16M 17.20M 17.85M
Jan 03, 2018 15:30 17.85M 17.50M 17.48M

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/total-vehicle-sales-85

 

Productivity and Costs
Productivity and Costs 

Released On 11/1/2018 8:30:00 AM For Q3(p):18
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm productivity – Q/Q change – SAAR 2.9 % 3.0 % 2.3 % 1.7 % to 2.7 % 2.2 %
Unit labor costs – Q/Q change – SAAR -1.0 % 1.1 % 0.3 % to 2.0 % 1.2 %

Highlights
Growth in productivity slowed in the third quarter but still remained respectable, at a 2.2 percent annualized rate vs a strong and upward revised 3.0 percent in the second quarter.

Slowing productivity lifts the cost of labor and together with 3.5 percent growth in compensation, up from 1.9 percent compensation growth in the second quarter, made for a 1.2 percent climb in unit labor costs vs outright contraction in the second quarter, at an unrevised 1.0 percent.

Output slowed 9 tenths in the latest quarter but still came in strong, at a 4.1 percent growth rate. Hours worked also slowed, down 2 tenths to a 1.8 percent growth rate.

As evidenced by yesterday’s employment cost index, wages did pick up in the quarter with real compensation in today’s report rising at a 1.4 percent annual rate vs fractional gains and an outright decline in the prior three quarters.

The best of both worlds, of course, is to have strong real wage gains along with strong output and limited gains in hours worked — which is pretty much the mix of today’s report.

Consensus Outlook
Forecasters are looking for respectable growth of 2.3 percent in third-quarter nonfarm productivity vs a strong 2.9 percent increase in the second quarter. Unit labor costs in the second quarter, reflecting the rise in productivity, fell 1.0 percent and a rise of 1.1 percent is the third quarter’s call.

 

https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485776&cust=us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

 

Employment Costs
Employment Cost Index 
Released On 10/31/2018 8:30:00 AM For Q3:18
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
ECI – Q/Q change 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.5 % to 0.8 % 0.8 %
ECI – Y/Y change 2.8 % 2.8 %
Highlights
The employment cost index continues to signal elevated price pressures for labor, up 0.8 percent in the third-quarter for a year-on-year rate of 2.8 percent. The quarterly rate is the highest of the expansion, matched twice before in the first quarter this year and the first quarter last year, while the yearly rate is also an expansion high, matched once in the second-quarter of this year.

Among components, the cost of wages & salaries rose a quarterly 0.9 percent which is also an expansion high and the second such reading in three quarters. This yearly rate is up 1 tenth at 2.9 percent in what is a new expansion high. In contrast, however, benefit costs moderated and sharply, up only 0.4 percent in the quarter vs 0.9 percent in the second quarter and down 3 tenths on the year to 2.6 percent.

The slowing in benefit costs is a plus in today’s report and that helps offset the acceleration in wages. This report probably won’t turn up the heat for accelerated rate hikes from the Federal Reserve which watches this report with special focus.

Consensus Outlook
Increasing pressure is expected for the employment cost index with Econoday’s consensus at a 0.7 percent rise in the third quarter compared to 0.6 percent in the second quarter. The year-on-year rate in the second quarter, at 2.8 percent, was the highest in 10 years in what was a strong signal of wage pressures in the labor market.

https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485769&cust=us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

 

GDP
GDP 

Released On 10/26/2018 8:30:00 AM For Q3(a):2018
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Real GDP – Q/Q change – SAAR 4.2 % 3.3 % 2.6 % to 3.8 % 3.5 %
GDP price index – Q/Q change – SAAR 3.0 % 2.0 % 1.4 % to 3.2 % 1.7 %
Real Consumer Spending – Q/Q change – SAAR 3.8 % 3.3 % 3.1 % to 3.5 % 4.0 %

Highlights
Consumer spending is the driver that it should be, leading a solid third-quarter GDP report that, however, does raise some fundamental questions about the outlook for the economy. GDP came in at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the quarter which is 2 tenths above Econoday’s consensus. Consumer spending, with strength centered in the key durable-goods subcomponent, easily beat high expectations, at a 4.0 percent rate that outdoes the second quarter’s very strong 3.8 percent showing.

Business investment wasn’t the major star as it has been in prior quarters but still was in the plus column at 0.8 percent growth. Yet the slowing, following growth rates of 8.7 and 11.5 percent in the second and first quarters, may hint at a quick fade for the stimulative effects of this year’s corporate tax cut. Residential investment extended its dismal run, falling at a 4.0 percent rate for the fifth contraction of the last six quarters which underscores housing as a problem sector.

Another problem that may be unfolding for the economy is trade. The deficit in net exports widened by a very steep $99.0 billion in the quarter and, by itself, pulled the quarter’s GDP down by 1.8 percentage points. Whatever tariff effects there are in the quarter, whether on metals or agriculture, they didn’t hold down imports which surged at a 9.1 percent growth rate. Also negative for GDP is exports which posted their first contraction in 2-1/2 years at minus 3.5 percent.

Coming to the rescue and outmatching the trade effect, however, is a constructive $76.3 billion build in inventories which, when measured against the prior quarter, contributed 2.1 percentage points to GDP. Inventories were a major negative in the second quarter, having been drawn down sharply and positioning the third-quarter for what proved to be a major build.

Government purchases round out the components, rising at a 3.3 percent clip and adding 0.6 percentage points to the quarter for one of the strongest showings of the expansion. But stimulus from government purchases is no surprise given the government’s massive $4.1 trillion in annual outlays.

Another impact the government has on the economy is monetary policy where interest rates, given the perceived need at the Federal Reserve to cool demand, are going up to fight the risk of inflation. Yet inflation didn’t show much life at all in the third-quarter as the GDP price index came in at only 1.7 percent. This misses the consensus by 3 tenths and is the most subdued result since the second-quarter last year.

But the real surprise in the report is the strength of consumer spending where the outlook, given the enormous level of demand for labor, looks very positive. Not positive, however, is the weakness in housing and also trade where the unfolding effects of tariffs and counter-tariffs are a major risk to future quarters. Uncertain in the outlook are inventories which may, however, continue to build given the underlying strength of consumer demand. But inventories, whose effects are abstract, added disproportionately to the quarter’s results, without which GDP would have come in no better than 1.4 percent.

Consensus Outlook
The first estimate for third-quarter GDP is expected to come in at a 3.3 percent annualized rate vs 4.2 percent in the second quarter. Consumer spending is expected to also come in at a 3.3 percent rate vs the prior quarter’s very strong 3.8 percent. Inventories also look to be a central positive in the quarter along with business investment. Residential investment, however, looks weak. The GDP price index is seen at 2.0 percent vs 3.0 percent.https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485684&cust=us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

 

Retail Sales
Retail Sales 

Released On 10/15/2018 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2018
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Retail Sales – M/M change 0.1 % 0.6 % 0.3 % to 0.8 % 0.1 %
Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.1 % to 0.7 % -0.1 %
Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.4 % 0.1 % to 0.5 % 0.0 %
Control Group – M/M change 0.1 % 0.0 % 0.3 % 0.2 % to 0.5 % 0.5 %

Highlights
Retail sales at the headline level flopped badly in September in what for third-quarter GDP, however, may be a head fake as control group sales, which are inputs into personal consumption expenditures, rose solidly.

Total retail sales inched only 0.1 percent higher which is below Econoday’s low estimate. Auto sales, perhaps boosted by replacement demand following Hurricane Florence’s strike on the Carolinas, jumped 0.8 percent following a long run of poor results. Contracting sharply, however, were sales at gasoline stations, down 0.8 percent following a strong gain in August, and also restaurants which had been very strong in prior months but plunged 1.8 percent in what may be another hurricane effect.

When excluding restaurants and gasoline stations and also autos and building materials, control group sales actually rose 0.5 percent which is at the high end of expectations. Some of this strength is offset by a 1 tenth downward revision to August to no change but, with July holding at a very strong 0.8 percent gain, still keeps consumer spending alive for the third quarter.

Building materials were neutral in the report with only a 0.1 percent rise. Losers in the month were health & personal care stores, down 0.3 percent, and department stores at minus 0.8 percent. Gainers included nonstore retailers, up 1.1 percent and again reflecting strength for e-commerce, and also furniture stores which also rose 1.1 percent.

This is a mixed report but is probably best assessed by the year-on-year rate for control sales, which is unchanged at a strong 4.9 percent. Special factors and unusual swings aside, the consumer continues to contribute solidly to economic growth.

Consensus Outlook
A bounce-back 0.6 percent increase is the forecast for September retail sales which in August proved unexpectedly soft at only a 0.1 percent gain. Driven by possible replacement demand from Hurricane Florence, unit vehicle sales were very strong in September. Ex-autos may be the reading that best tracks underlying demand and a more moderate gain of 0.4 percent is the call vs August’s 0.3 percent rise . Ex-autos ex-gas is at a consensus 0.4 percent gain in September with the consensus for control group sales at 0.3 percent.

 

https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485756&cust=us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top

 

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