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Durable Goods Month over Month January

US Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Rise

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent advance in December and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent drop. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, jumped 1.2 percent and drove the increase. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, went up 0.8 percent, the highest gain since July and rebounding from a 0.9 percent fall in December. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-21 01:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM -4.4% -0.1% -2.5% -1.2%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM 0.8% -4.3% 1.6% 0.8%
2019-02-21 01:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM 1.2% 1% 1.5% 2.5%
2019-03-13 12:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM 0.4% 1.3% -0.5% -0.9%
2019-04-02 12:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM 0.4% -1.3% -0.7%
2019-04-25 12:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM -1.5%
2019-05-24 12:30 PM Durable Goods Orders MoM  

 

 

US Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Rise

New orders for US manufactured durable goods increased 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent advance in December and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent drop. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, went up 0.8 percent, the highest gain since July and rebounding from a 0.9 percent fall in December.

Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, drove the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $90.9 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in December and compared to forecasts of a 0.1 percent gain. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent, following an upwardly revised 2.2 percent rise in the previous month.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,181.9 billion.  This followed a 0.1 percent December decrease. Transportation equipment, also up following three consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 0.1 percent to $811.6 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up twenty-four of the last twenty-five months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $417.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $1.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $132.6 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January increased $2.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $80.3 billion. Shipments decreased $1.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $78.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $711.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $182.8 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in January decreased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $12.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $13.0 billion.  Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $156.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $23.0 billion.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders

 

February Inflation Year over Year

Core Inflation

US core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, increased 2.1 percent from a year earlier in February 2019, easing from a 2.2 percent gain in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of a 2.2 percent rise. It is the smallest annual increase in core consumer prices since October. Core Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.62 percent from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.60 percent in June of 1980 and a record low of 0 percent in May of 1957.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1% 2.2%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2%
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1%

 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

 

 

Standard Inflation

Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 1.6 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2016, mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline and clothing while prices of electricity stalled. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent after a flat reading in January, matching forecasts. It is the first monthly rise in the CPI, due to prices of food, gasoline and rents. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5% 1.6%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.7%
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6%

 

United States Inflation Rate Lowest since 2016

Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 1.6 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2016, mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline and clothing while prices of electricity stalled. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent after a flat reading in January, matching forecasts. It is the first monthly rise in the CPI, due to prices of food, gasoline and rents.

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-9.1 pecent compared to -10.1 percent in January); fuel oil (-2.4 percent compared to -8.1 percent); medical care commodities (-1.1 percent compared to -0.3 percent); apparel (-0.8 percent compared to +0.1 percent) and utility piped gas service (-2.6 percent compared to +4.3 percent). Also, prices slowed for transportation services (1.1 percent compared to 2 percent); used cars and trucks (1.1 percent compared to 1.6 percent); and new vehicles (0.3 percent compared to 0 percent) and stalled for electricity (0 percent compared to 1.3 percent). On the other hand, inflation increased for shelter (3.4 percent compared to 3.2 percent) and food (2 percent compared to 1.6 percent) and was flat for medical care services (2.4 percent, the same as in January).

Excluding food and energy, core inflation rate edged down to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent in January, below forecasts of 2.2 percent.

Month-over-month, the indexes for shelter and food increased, and the gasoline index rose after recent declines to result in the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.4 percent, its largest monthly increase since May 2014, as both the food at home and food away from home indexes increased. The gasoline index rose 1.5 percent in February, following three consecutive monthly declines, resulting in the energy index rising 0.4 percent despite declines in the electricity and natural gas indexes.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in February after rising 0.2 percent in January, matching market expectations. Along with the shelter index, the indexes or personal care, apparel, and education all increased. The indexes for recreation, medical care, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles all declined in February.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ISM Manufacturing February 2019

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 54.2 in February of 2019 from 56.6 in January, below market expectations of 55.5. The reading pointed to the slowest growth in factory activity since November of 2016 as new orders, production and employment increased less. Business Confidence in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

 

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 54.2 in February of 2019 from 56.6 in January, below market expectations of 55.5. The reading pointed to the slowest growth in factory activity since November of 2016 as new orders, production and employment increased less. 

Slower growth rates were seen in new orders (55.5 from 58.2), production (54.8 from 60.5), employment (52.3 from 55.5) and supplier deliveries (54.9 from 56.2). In contrast, the pace picked up for inventories (53.4 from 52.8), backlogs of orders (52.3 from 50.3) and new export orders (52.8 from 51.8) while price pressures decreased (49.4 from 49.6).

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 16 reported growth in February, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. The only industry reporting contraction in February is Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-01-03 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing New Orders 51.1 62.1
2019-01-03 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Prices 54.9 60.7 58
2019-02-01 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.6 54.3 54.2 52
2019-03-01 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 56.6 55.5 55
2019-04-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.2 53
2019-05-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
2019-06-03 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

 

GDP Quarter over Quarter Q4

The US economy advanced an annualized 2.6 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, beating market expectations of a 2.4 percent growth, the initial estimate showed. It follows a 3.4 percent expansion in the previous period. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports increased. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

 

The US economy advanced an annualized 2.6 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, beating market expectations of a 2.4 percent growth, the initial estimate showed. Fixed investment rose faster, consumer spending remained robust and the drag from net trade was smaller. Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, above 2.2 percent in 2017 and the highest growth rate since 2015. 

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.92 percentage points to growth (2.37 percentage points in Q3) and rose 2.8 percent (3.5 percent in Q3). Spending rose less for nondurable goods (2.8 percent compared to 4.6 percent) and services (2.4 percent compared to 3.2 percent) but increased more for durables (5.9 percent compared to 3.7 percent).

Fixed investment contributed 0.69 percentage points to growth (0.21 percentage points in Q3) and rose 3.9 percent (1.1 percent in Q3). Investment rose faster for equipment (6.7 percent compared to 3.4 percent) and intellectual property products (13.1 percent compared to 5.6 percent) but continued to decline for structures (-4.2 percent compared to -3.4 percent) and residential investment (-3.5 percent compared to -3.6 percent).

The contribution from private inventories was 0.13 percentage points, below 2.33 percentage points in Q3.

Exports increased 1.6 percent (-4.9 percent in Q3). Imports rose 2.7 percent (9.3 percent in Q3). As a result, the impact from trade was -0.22 percent, compared to -1.99 percent in the previous quarter which was the biggest drag on growth since the first quarter of 1984. Yet, exports fell a lot in Q3 mainly due to a decline in soybean sales to China after Beijing’s tariffs took effect and imports surged before US import tariffs take complete effect.

Government spending and investment added 0.07 percentage points to growth, below 0.44 percentage points in Q3. It increased 0.4 percent, lower than 2.6 percent in Q3.

The partial shutdown, which began on December 22nd, is estimated to have lowered fourth-quarter GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage point when accounting for the impact of reductions in services provided by the federal government.

Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, above 2.2 percent in 2017 and the highest growth rate since 2015. The biggest upward contribution came from personal spending (1.81 percentage points compared to 1.73 percentage points), followed by fixed investment (0.91 percentage points compared to 0.81 percentage points); inventories (0.12 percentage points compared to a flat reading); and public expenditure (0.26 percentage poitns compared to -0.01 percentage points). On the other hand, net trade subtracted 0.22 percentage points to growth, compared to -0.31 percentage points in 2017.

Due to the partial government shutdown, the advance estimate of GDP growth was not released and the second estimate was replaced by an intitial report.

Calendar GMT   Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 3.5% 4.2% 3.3% 3.1%
2018-11-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 3.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 3.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2019-02-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2.6% 3.4% 2.4% 2.5%
2019-03-28 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final   3.4%   2.7%
2019-04-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv       1.8%
2019-05-30 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est       1.8%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

 

 

 

Durable Good Orders MoM December 2018

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following an upwardly revised 1 percent advance in November and missing market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain. Transportation equipment drove the increase. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.7 percent in December, after falling 1 percent in November. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

 

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following an upwardly revised 1 percent advance in November and missing market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain. Transportation equipment drove the increase. 

Demand for transport equipment increased 3.3 percent in December (vs 3.4 percent in November), led by civilian aircraft (28.4 percent vs 4.5 percent) and motor vehicles and parts (2.1 percent vs 0.4 percent), while orders for defense aircraft and parts fell sharply (-30.5 percent vs 29 percent). Demand also rose for fabricated metal products (0.3 percent vs 1.9 percent). Meanwhile, orders for computers and electronic products were unchanged (vs 0.2 percent in November) while decreases were recorded in demand for primary metals (-0.9 percent vs 1.5 percent), machinery (-0.4 percent vs -1.9 percent) and electrical equipment, appliances, and components (-0.1 percent vs -2.5 percent).

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.7 percent in December, after falling 1 percent in November.

Excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.1 percent (vs -0.2 percent in November). Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.8 percent (vs unchanged in November).

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, up four of the last five months, increased $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $259.7 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent November increase. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $1.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $91.4 billion.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down three consecutive months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,180.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November decrease. Transportation equipment, also down three consecutive months, drove the decrease, $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $811.1 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up twenty-three of the last twenty-four months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $414.7 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent November increase. Primary metals, up twenty-five of the last twenty-six months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $36.6 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December increased $2.8 billion or 3.7 percent to $77.8 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $80.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $708.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $181.5 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in December decreased $1.0 billion or 7.0 percent to $13.3 billion. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $12.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $157.1 billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $22.7 billion

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders

 

Inflation Year over Year January

Annual inflation rate in the United States slowed for the third straight month to 1.6 percent in January of 2019 from 1.9 percent in December. It is the lowest rate since June of 2017, compared to market expectations of 1.5 percent, mainly due to a sharp fall in energy prices, namely gasoline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, the same as in both December and November. The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.27 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-14 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.8%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9%
 

Annual inflation rate in the United States slowed for the third straight month to 1.6 percent in January of 2019 from 1.9 percent in December. It is the lowest rate since June of 2017, compared to market expectations of 1.5 percent, mainly due to a sharp fall in energy prices, namely gasoline. 

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-10.1 pecent compared to -2.1 percent in December); fuel oil (-8.1 percent compared to 1.9 percent); and medical care commodities (-0.3 percent compared to -0.5 percent); and were unchanged for new vehicles (0 percent compared to -0.3 percent). Also, inflation slowed for transportation services (2 percent compared to 2.8 percent); medical care services (2.4 percent compared to 2.6 percent); and was flat for food (1.6 percent); and shelter (3.2 percent). On the other hand, prices rebounded for apparel (0.1 percent compared to -0.1 percent) and went up faster for used cars and trucks (1.6 percent compared to 1.4 percent); electricity (1.3 percent compared to 1.1 percent); and utility piped gas service (4.3 percent compared to 2.3 percent).

Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 2.2 percent over a year earlier, the same as in December and slightly above forecasts of 2.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat for the third straight month, compared to forecasts of a 0.1 percent rise. The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. All the major energy component indexes declined in January, with the gasoline index falling 5.5 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent, with the index for food at home rising 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increasing 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January for the fourth consecutive month, matching forecasts. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes that rose in January, while the indexes for airline fares and for motor vehicle insurance declined.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

 

 

Nonfarm Payroll January 2019

Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 304 thousand in January of 2019, following a downwardly revised 222 thousand rise in December and easily beating market expectations of 165 thousand. Employment grew in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing. There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey. Instead, the impact of the shutdown contributed to the uptick in the unemployment rate to 4 percent from 3.9 percent as it included furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey. Non Farm Payrolls in the United States averaged 125.68 Thousand from 1939 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1118 Thousand in September of 1983 and a record low of -1959 Thousand in September of 1945.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-02 12:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 250K 118K 190K 180K
2018-12-07 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 155K 237K 200K 189K
2019-01-04 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 312K 176K 177K 165K
2019-02-01 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 304K 222K 165K 170K
2019-03-08 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 304K 190K
2019-04-05 12:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 193K
2019-05-03 12:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

 

Federal Reserve Rate Decision 1-30-19

The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5 percent during its first policy meeting of 2019 and reaffirmed its position to be patient about further policy firming in light of recent global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.69 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.

 

Fed Signals Hold on Rate Increases

The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5 percent during its first policy meeting of 2019 and reaffirmed its position to be patient about further policy firming in light of recent global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures.

FOMC Statement:

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier last year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Although market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved lower in recent months, survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.”

Meanwhile, the Fed revised its earlier guidance regarding the conditions under which it could adjust the details of its balance sheet normalization program:

“-The Committee intends to continue to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve’s administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required.

-The Committee continues to view changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.”

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate’

 

Core Inflation Year over Year- December 2018

US core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in December 2018, unchanged from the previous month and in line with market expectations. Core Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.63 percent from 1957 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 13.60 percent in June of 1980 and a record low of 0 percent in May of 1957.

 

 

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-11 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4%
2018-11-14 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.1%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.2%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

Jobs Openings Revised November 2018

The number of job openings in the US declined by 243,000 to 6.888 million in November 2018 from an upwardly revised 7.131 million in the previous month and below market expectations of 7.063 million. The number of job openings decreased for total private (-237,000) and was little changed for government. The job openings level decreased in a number of industries, with the largest decreases in other services (-66,000) and construction (-45,000). Meanwhile, job openings increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+40,000). Job openings fell mostly in the West region (-196,000). Job Offers in the United States averaged 4188.69 Thousand from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7293 Thousand in August of 2018 and a record low of 2196 Thousand in July of 2009.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-16 02:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings 7.136M 7.077M 6.945M 6.8M
2018-11-06 03:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings 7.009M 7.293M 7.1M 7.1M
2018-12-10 03:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings 7.079M 6.96M 6.995M 7.2M
2019-01-08 03:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings 6.888M 7.131M 7.063M 7.1M
2019-02-12 03:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings 6.888M 7.063M 5.8M
2019-03-15 02:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings
2019-04-09 02:00 PM JOLTs Job Openings

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers

 

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