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US Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest Since 1969

US Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest Since 1969

The US unemployment rate decreased to 3.5 percent in September 2019 from 3.7 percent in the previous month and above below market expectations of 3.7 percent. The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5 percent. Over the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5.8 million.

 

 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Whites declined to 3.2 percent in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.2 percent), adult women (3.1 percent), teenagers (12.5 percent), Blacks (5.5 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (3.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs declined by 304,000 to 2.6 million in September, while the number of new entrants increased by 103,000 to 677,000. New entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked.

In September, the number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks fell by 339,000 to 1.9 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 22.7 percent of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in September. The employment-population ratio, at 61.0 percent, was little changed over the month but was up by 0.6 percentage point over the year. 

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.4 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

In September, 1.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 278,000 from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 321,000 discouraged workers in September, little changed from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 978,000 persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

 

US New Home Sales Month over Month August 2019

US New Home Sales Rise More than Expected

Sales of new single-family houses in the United States jumped 7.1 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713 thousand in August 2019, following a revised 8.6 percent slump in July and easily beating market expectations of a 3.5 percent increase.

July’s sales pace was revised higher to 666 thousand units from the previously reported 635 thousand units.

New home sales, which account for about 11.5 percent of housing market sales, were up in the South (6.0 percent to 426 thousand) and West (16.5 percent to 191 thousand), but dropped in the Midwest (-3.0 percent to 64 thousand) and Northeast (-5.9 percent to 32 thousand).

The median new house price rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier to USD 328.4 thousand in August. The average sales price jumped 6.1 percent to USD 404.2 thousand.

The stock of new houses for sale declined 1.2 percent from the previous month to 326 thousand, the lowest since September 2018. At August’s sales pace it would take 5.5 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 5.9 months in July.

Year-on-year, new home sales surged 18.0 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales

Fed Rate Decision 9-18-19

Fed Cuts Rates Despite Disagreement Among Policymakers

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.75-2 percent on a 7-3 vote during its September meeting. It was the second rate cut this year, amid global growth concerns and muted inflation pressures.

 

Median Fed policymaker projection is for no further rate cuts in 2019 but seven of 17 policymakers saw one more cut as appropriate.

GDP forecasts were raised to 2.2 percent in 2019 (vs 2.1 percent previously estimated) and 1.9 percent in 2021 (vs 1.8 percent), while that for 2020 was unchanged at 2.0 percent. Inflation expectations were seen at 1.5 percent in 2019, 1.9 percent in 2020 and 2.0 percent in 2021, matching June’s projections.

Amid a breakdown this week in the overnight repurchase lending market, the Fed set interest on excess reserves rate at 1.80%, widening the spread from top of target range to 20 bp from 15 bp.

 

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports have weakened. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair, John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent; and Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to maintain the target range at 2 percent to 2-1/4 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Inflation Year over Year August 2019

US Core Inflation Rate Year over Year August 2019

The US core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose to 2.4 percent in August 2019, the highest in a year and above market consensus of 2.3 percent. Core Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.61 percent from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.60 percent in June of 1980 and a record low of 0 percent in May of 1957.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY May 2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
2019-07-11 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY Jun 2.1% 2% 2% 2%
2019-08-13 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY Jul 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
2019-09-12 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY Aug 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2%
2019-10-10 12:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY Sep 2.4% 2.4%
2019-11-13 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY Oct 2.3%
2019-12-11 01:30 PM Core Inflation Rate YoY Nov 2.1%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

 

US Inflation Rate Falls Unexpectedly in August

The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.7 percent in August 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 1.8 percent.

 

Food inflation stood at 1.7 percent in August, little-changed from 1.8 percent in July, as costs of food at home rose at a slower pace (0.5 percent vs 0.6 percent). Additional price increases were recorded for transportation services (0.9 percent vs 0.7 percent); medical care services (4.3 percent vs 3.3 percent); shelter (3.4 percent vs 3.5 percent); apparel (1.0 percent vs -0.5 percent); medical care commodities (0.1 percent vs -0.4 percent); new vehicles (0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent); and used cars and trucks (2.1 percent vs 1.5 percent).

Energy prices tumbled 4.4 percent in August, following a 2.0 percent drop in the previous month. Within energy commodities, gasoline cost declined 7.1 percent (vs -3.3 percent in July) and fuel oil went down 8.4 percent (vs -6.0 percent in July). Within energy services, electricity prices fell 0.1 percent (vs 0.5 percent in July) and utility (piped) gas service cost slid 3.5 percent (vs -2.9 percent in July).

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose to 2.4 percent in August, the highest in a year and above market consensus of 2.3 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices advanced 0.1 percent in August, after a 0.3 percent gain in July and in line with market forecasts. Increases in shelter and medical care prices offset a decline in energy cost.

 

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY May 1.8% 2% 1.9% 1.9%
2019-07-11 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jun 1.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.7%
2019-08-13 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Jul 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%
2019-09-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Aug 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%
2019-10-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Sep 1.7% 1.9%
2019-11-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Oct 1.7%
2019-12-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY Nov 1.8%

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

 

Unemployment Rate August 2019

US Jobless Rate Steady for 3rd Month at 3.7%

The US unemployment rate came in at 3.7 percent in August 2019, unchanged from the previous two month’s figures and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 19 thousand to 6.0 million while employment rose by 590 thousand to 157.9 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.3 percent), teenagers (12.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.5 percent), Asians (2.8 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in August.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.2 million in August and accounted for 20.6 percent of the unemployed.

In August, the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.2 percent in August but has shown little change, on net, thus far this year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.9 percent, also edged up over the month and is up by 0.6 percentage point over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 397,000 to 4.4 million in August; this increase follows a decline of similar magnitude in July. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

In August, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little different from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 467,000 discouraged workers in August, about unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in August had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

United States Existing Home Sales Month over Month July 2019

United States Existing Home Sales

Sales of previously owned houses in the US rose 2.5 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July 2019, slightly above market expectations of 5.39 million. Sales of single family homes advanced 2.8 percent to 4.84 million, reversing a 1.1 percent decline in the previous month; while sales of condos were unchanged at 0.58 million, after a 3.3 percent slump in June. The median house price stood at $280,800 in July, compared to $285,300 in June and $269,300 a year earlier. The months’ worth of supply fell to 4.2 from 4.4. Year-on-year, existing home sales rebounded 0.6 percent, the first annual gain in 17 months. Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3963 Thousand from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-07-23 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales MoM Jun -1.7% 2.9% -0.2% -3.6%
2019-07-23 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Jun 5.27M 5.36M 5.33M 5.15M
2019-08-21 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales MoM Jul 2.5% -1.3% 2.5% 1.9%
2019-08-21 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Jul 5.42M 5.29M 5.39M 5.37M
2019-09-19 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Aug 5.42M 5.38M
2019-10-22 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Sep 5M
2019-11-21 03:00 PM Existing Home Sales Oct  

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/existing-home-sales

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Job Openings June 2019

The number of job openings in the US were little-changed at 7.348 million in June 2019, compared to a revised 7.384 million in the previous month and market expectations of 7.317 million. Job openings declined in leisure and hospitality (-93,000), but increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+38,000) as well as state and local government education (+20,000). Meanwhile, hiring fell by 58,000 jobs to 5.702 million. Job Offers in the United States averaged 4428.65 Thousand from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7626 Thousand in November of 2018 and a record low of 2264 Thousand in July of 2009

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/job-offers

 

 

Unemployment Rate July 2019

US Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 3.7%

The US unemployment rate stood at 3.7 percent in July 2019, unchanged from the previous month’s figure and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed increased by 88 thousand to 6.1 million while employment went up by 283 thousand to 157.3 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Asians increased to 2.8 percent in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 240,000 to 2.2 million, while the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 248,000 to 1.2 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.2 percent of the unemployed.

In July, the labor force participation rate was 63.0 percent, and the employment- population ratio was 60.7 percent. Both measures were little changed over the month and over the year. 

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 363,000 in July to 4.0 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full- time jobs. Over the past 12 months, the number of involuntary part-time workers has declined by 604,000.

In July, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.). These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 368,000 discouraged workers in July, down by 144,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-05-03 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Apr 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
2019-06-07 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate May 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%
2019-07-05 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Jun 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
2019-08-02 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Jul 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%
2019-09-06 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Aug 3.7% 3.6%
2019-10-04 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Sep 3.6%
2019-11-01 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate Oct 3.7%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

 

Fed Rate Decision August 2019

Fed Lowers Rates, Leaves Door Open to Further Cuts

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25 percent during its July meeting, the first rate cut since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China. The central bank also said it “will act as appropriate to sustain” growth but during the press conference Chairman Powell said he did not view the move as the start of a lengthy series of rate cuts.

 

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

 

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-20 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-05-01 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-06-19 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-07-31 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.5% 2.25% 2.25%
2019-08-21 06:00 PM FOMC Minutes
2019-09-18 06:00 PM FOMC Economic Projections
2019-09-18 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

 

United States GDP Growth Rate Second Quarter 2019

United States GDP Growth Rate Second Quarter 2019

 

The US economy grew by an annualized 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, beating market expectations of 1.8 percent and following a 3.1 percent expansion in the previous three-month period, the advance estimate showed. Household consumption and government spending increased at faster rates, while a slump in exports and a smaller inventory build made a negative contribution to growth. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.21 percent from 1947 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

 

 

 

Positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (2.85 percentage points), federal government spending (0.51 percentage points), and state and local government spending (0.35 percentage points) were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment (-0.86 percentage points), exports (-0.63 percentage points), nonresidential fixed investment (-0.08 percentage points) and residential fixed investment (-0.06 percentage points). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased, posting a negative contribution of 0.01 percentage points.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) jumped 4.3 percent in the second quarter, the most since the fourth quarter of 2017, mainly boosted by consumption of goods (8.3 percent vs 1.5 percent in Q1), in particular durable goods (12.9 percent vs 0.3 percent). Also, services consumption growth accelerated (2.5 percent vs 1 percent). Federal government spending climbed 7.9 percent (vs 2.2 percent in Q1) and state and local government spending rose 3.2 percent (vs 3.3 percent in Q1).

 

By contrast, exports plunged 5.2 percent in the second quarter, after a 4.1 percent increase in Q1, due to lower sales of both goods (-5 percent vs 4.6 percent) and services (-5.6 percent vs 3.3 percent). On the other hand, imports edged 0.1 percent higher led by purchases of goods (0.2 percent vs -2.8 percent).

Business investment declined for the first time in three years by 0.6 percent, compared to a 4.4 percent advance in the previous three-month period, dragged by a contraction in structures investment (-10.6 percent vs 4 percent), which includes oil and gas well drilling. Meanwhile, investment in intellectual property products continued to rise solidly (4.7 percent vs 10.8 percent), and that in equipment rebounded (0.7 percent vs -0.1 percent).

Residential investment shrank for the sixth straight period (-1.5 percent vs -1 percent), the first such instance since the financial crisis.

 Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-04-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1 3.2% 2.2% 2% 2%
2019-05-30 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 3.1% 2.2% 3.1% 3.2%
2019-06-27 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1 3.1% 2.2% 3.1% 3.1%
2019-07-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 2.1% 3.1% 1.8% 1.7%
2019-08-29 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q2 3.1% 2.1% 2.1%
2019-09-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q2 3.1% 2.1%
2019-10-30 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q3 2.2%

 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

 

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