Archive for February, 2019

GDP Quarter over Quarter Q4

The US economy advanced an annualized 2.6 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, beating market expectations of a 2.4 percent growth, the initial estimate showed. It follows a 3.4 percent expansion in the previous period. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, private inventory investment, and federal government spending. Those were partly offset by negative contributions from residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports increased. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

 

The US economy advanced an annualized 2.6 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, beating market expectations of a 2.4 percent growth, the initial estimate showed. Fixed investment rose faster, consumer spending remained robust and the drag from net trade was smaller. Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, above 2.2 percent in 2017 and the highest growth rate since 2015. 

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.92 percentage points to growth (2.37 percentage points in Q3) and rose 2.8 percent (3.5 percent in Q3). Spending rose less for nondurable goods (2.8 percent compared to 4.6 percent) and services (2.4 percent compared to 3.2 percent) but increased more for durables (5.9 percent compared to 3.7 percent).

Fixed investment contributed 0.69 percentage points to growth (0.21 percentage points in Q3) and rose 3.9 percent (1.1 percent in Q3). Investment rose faster for equipment (6.7 percent compared to 3.4 percent) and intellectual property products (13.1 percent compared to 5.6 percent) but continued to decline for structures (-4.2 percent compared to -3.4 percent) and residential investment (-3.5 percent compared to -3.6 percent).

The contribution from private inventories was 0.13 percentage points, below 2.33 percentage points in Q3.

Exports increased 1.6 percent (-4.9 percent in Q3). Imports rose 2.7 percent (9.3 percent in Q3). As a result, the impact from trade was -0.22 percent, compared to -1.99 percent in the previous quarter which was the biggest drag on growth since the first quarter of 1984. Yet, exports fell a lot in Q3 mainly due to a decline in soybean sales to China after Beijing’s tariffs took effect and imports surged before US import tariffs take complete effect.

Government spending and investment added 0.07 percentage points to growth, below 0.44 percentage points in Q3. It increased 0.4 percent, lower than 2.6 percent in Q3.

The partial shutdown, which began on December 22nd, is estimated to have lowered fourth-quarter GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage point when accounting for the impact of reductions in services provided by the federal government.

Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, above 2.2 percent in 2017 and the highest growth rate since 2015. The biggest upward contribution came from personal spending (1.81 percentage points compared to 1.73 percentage points), followed by fixed investment (0.91 percentage points compared to 0.81 percentage points); inventories (0.12 percentage points compared to a flat reading); and public expenditure (0.26 percentage poitns compared to -0.01 percentage points). On the other hand, net trade subtracted 0.22 percentage points to growth, compared to -0.31 percentage points in 2017.

Due to the partial government shutdown, the advance estimate of GDP growth was not released and the second estimate was replaced by an intitial report.

Calendar GMT   Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 3.5% 4.2% 3.3% 3.1%
2018-11-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 3.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 3.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2019-02-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2.6% 3.4% 2.4% 2.5%
2019-03-28 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final   3.4%   2.7%
2019-04-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv       1.8%
2019-05-30 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est       1.8%

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

 

 

 

Durable Good Orders MoM December 2018

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following an upwardly revised 1 percent advance in November and missing market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain. Transportation equipment drove the increase. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.7 percent in December, after falling 1 percent in November. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

 

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following an upwardly revised 1 percent advance in November and missing market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain. Transportation equipment drove the increase. 

Demand for transport equipment increased 3.3 percent in December (vs 3.4 percent in November), led by civilian aircraft (28.4 percent vs 4.5 percent) and motor vehicles and parts (2.1 percent vs 0.4 percent), while orders for defense aircraft and parts fell sharply (-30.5 percent vs 29 percent). Demand also rose for fabricated metal products (0.3 percent vs 1.9 percent). Meanwhile, orders for computers and electronic products were unchanged (vs 0.2 percent in November) while decreases were recorded in demand for primary metals (-0.9 percent vs 1.5 percent), machinery (-0.4 percent vs -1.9 percent) and electrical equipment, appliances, and components (-0.1 percent vs -2.5 percent).

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.7 percent in December, after falling 1 percent in November.

Excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.1 percent (vs -0.2 percent in November). Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.8 percent (vs unchanged in November).

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, up four of the last five months, increased $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $259.7 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent November increase. Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, led the increase, $1.4 billion or 1.5 percent to $91.4 billion.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down three consecutive months, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,180.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent November decrease. Transportation equipment, also down three consecutive months, drove the decrease, $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $811.1 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up twenty-three of the last twenty-four months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.2 percent to $414.7 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent November increase. Primary metals, up twenty-five of the last twenty-six months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 1.1 percent to $36.6 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December increased $2.8 billion or 3.7 percent to $77.8 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $80.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $708.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $181.5 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in December decreased $1.0 billion or 7.0 percent to $13.3 billion. Shipments increased $0.5 billion or 4.1 percent to $12.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $0.8 billion or 0.5 percent to $157.1 billion. Inventories decreased $0.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $22.7 billion

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders

 

Inflation Year over Year January

Annual inflation rate in the United States slowed for the third straight month to 1.6 percent in January of 2019 from 1.9 percent in December. It is the lowest rate since June of 2017, compared to market expectations of 1.5 percent, mainly due to a sharp fall in energy prices, namely gasoline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, the same as in both December and November. The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.27 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-14 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.8%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9%
 

Annual inflation rate in the United States slowed for the third straight month to 1.6 percent in January of 2019 from 1.9 percent in December. It is the lowest rate since June of 2017, compared to market expectations of 1.5 percent, mainly due to a sharp fall in energy prices, namely gasoline. 

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-10.1 pecent compared to -2.1 percent in December); fuel oil (-8.1 percent compared to 1.9 percent); and medical care commodities (-0.3 percent compared to -0.5 percent); and were unchanged for new vehicles (0 percent compared to -0.3 percent). Also, inflation slowed for transportation services (2 percent compared to 2.8 percent); medical care services (2.4 percent compared to 2.6 percent); and was flat for food (1.6 percent); and shelter (3.2 percent). On the other hand, prices rebounded for apparel (0.1 percent compared to -0.1 percent) and went up faster for used cars and trucks (1.6 percent compared to 1.4 percent); electricity (1.3 percent compared to 1.1 percent); and utility piped gas service (4.3 percent compared to 2.3 percent).

Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 2.2 percent over a year earlier, the same as in December and slightly above forecasts of 2.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat for the third straight month, compared to forecasts of a 0.1 percent rise. The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. All the major energy component indexes declined in January, with the gasoline index falling 5.5 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent, with the index for food at home rising 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increasing 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January for the fourth consecutive month, matching forecasts. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes that rose in January, while the indexes for airline fares and for motor vehicle insurance declined.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

 

 

Nonfarm Payroll January 2019

Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 304 thousand in January of 2019, following a downwardly revised 222 thousand rise in December and easily beating market expectations of 165 thousand. Employment grew in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing. There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey. Instead, the impact of the shutdown contributed to the uptick in the unemployment rate to 4 percent from 3.9 percent as it included furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey. Non Farm Payrolls in the United States averaged 125.68 Thousand from 1939 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1118 Thousand in September of 1983 and a record low of -1959 Thousand in September of 1945.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-02 12:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 250K 118K 190K 180K
2018-12-07 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 155K 237K 200K 189K
2019-01-04 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 312K 176K 177K 165K
2019-02-01 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 304K 222K 165K 170K
2019-03-08 01:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 304K 190K
2019-04-05 12:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls 193K
2019-05-03 12:30 PM Non Farm Payrolls

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls