Archive for August, 2019

United States Existing Home Sales Month over Month July 2019

United States Existing Home Sales

Sales of previously owned houses in the US rose 2.5 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million in July 2019, slightly above market expectations of 5.39 million. Sales of single family homes advanced 2.8 percent to 4.84 million, reversing a 1.1 percent decline in the previous month; while sales of condos were unchanged at 0.58 million, after a 3.3 percent slump in June. The median house price stood at $280,800 in July, compared to $285,300 in June and $269,300 a year earlier. The months’ worth of supply fell to 4.2 from 4.4. Year-on-year, existing home sales rebounded 0.6 percent, the first annual gain in 17 months. Existing Home Sales in the United States averaged 3963 Thousand from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7250 Thousand in September of 2005 and a record low of 1370 Thousand in March of 1970.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-07-23 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales MoM Jun -1.7% 2.9% -0.2% -3.6%
2019-07-23 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Jun 5.27M 5.36M 5.33M 5.15M
2019-08-21 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales MoM Jul 2.5% -1.3% 2.5% 1.9%
2019-08-21 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Jul 5.42M 5.29M 5.39M 5.37M
2019-09-19 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Aug 5.42M 5.38M
2019-10-22 02:00 PM Existing Home Sales Sep 5M
2019-11-21 03:00 PM Existing Home Sales Oct









US Job Openings June 2019

The number of job openings in the US were little-changed at 7.348 million in June 2019, compared to a revised 7.384 million in the previous month and market expectations of 7.317 million. Job openings declined in leisure and hospitality (-93,000), but increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+38,000) as well as state and local government education (+20,000). Meanwhile, hiring fell by 58,000 jobs to 5.702 million. Job Offers in the United States averaged 4428.65 Thousand from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7626 Thousand in November of 2018 and a record low of 2264 Thousand in July of 2009



Unemployment Rate July 2019

US Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 3.7%

The US unemployment rate stood at 3.7 percent in July 2019, unchanged from the previous month’s figure and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed increased by 88 thousand to 6.1 million while employment went up by 283 thousand to 157.3 million.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Asians increased to 2.8 percent in July. The jobless rates for adult men (3.4 percent), adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (12.8 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.0 percent), and Hispanics (4.5 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks increased by 240,000 to 2.2 million, while the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) declined by 248,000 to 1.2 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 19.2 percent of the unemployed.

In July, the labor force participation rate was 63.0 percent, and the employment- population ratio was 60.7 percent. Both measures were little changed over the month and over the year. 

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 363,000 in July to 4.0 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full- time jobs. Over the past 12 months, the number of involuntary part-time workers has declined by 604,000.

In July, 1.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.). These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 368,000 discouraged workers in July, down by 144,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in July had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-05-03 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Apr 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
2019-06-07 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate May 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%
2019-07-05 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Jun 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
2019-08-02 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Jul 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6%
2019-09-06 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Aug 3.7% 3.6%
2019-10-04 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate Sep 3.6%
2019-11-01 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate Oct 3.7%


Fed Rate Decision August 2019

Fed Lowers Rates, Leaves Door Open to Further Cuts

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25 percent during its July meeting, the first rate cut since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China. The central bank also said it “will act as appropriate to sustain” growth but during the press conference Chairman Powell said he did not view the move as the start of a lengthy series of rate cuts.


FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-20 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-05-01 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-06-19 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-07-31 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.5% 2.25% 2.25%
2019-08-21 06:00 PM FOMC Minutes
2019-09-18 06:00 PM FOMC Economic Projections
2019-09-18 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25%