New orders for US manufactured durable goods surged 0.8 percent from a month earlier in November 2018, following a downwardly revised 4.3 percent plunge in October and missing market expectations of a 1.6 percent advance. Transportation equipment drove the increase. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.6 percent in November, after a 0.5 percent gain in the previous month. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders

The numbers: Most U.S. retailers posted healthy increases in sales in November as the holiday season kicked off with Black Friday specials after Thanksgiving.

Retail sales increased 0.2% last month, led by online stores such as AmazonAMZN, +1.47%  and big-box stores like Best Buy BBY, +2.64% the Commerce Department said.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.1% gain.

If a big drop at gas stations is stripped out, retail sales rose a stronger 0.5%, the government said Friday.

What’s more, the increase in sales in October was raised to 1.1% from 0.8%, suggesting the U.S. economy got off to a somewhat better start in the fourth quarter than it initially seemed.

What happened: After surging in October, sales at gas stations slumped 2.3% November.

The price of gas fell almost 30 cents a gallon to a nationwide average of about $2.54 at the end of month. In many areas the cost was even less.

That’s good news for consumers, though. They took some of the savings and spent more online. The category that’s mostly online sales recorded a robust 2.3% increase in sales last month. Department store sales rose a smaller 0.4%.

Sales also rose at stores that sell groceries electronics, appliances, home furnishings, sporting goods and health and personal care items.

Auto sales edged up 0.2%. They account for about one-fifth of all retail sales.

Sales fell at home centers, clothing stores and restaurants. All three segments have done well so far this year, however, especially restaurants.

Big picture: Strong hiring and the lowest unemployment rate since 1969 has lifted the confidence of Americans and encouraged them to spend more. The U.S. economy in 2018 could top 3% growth for the first time since 2005.

Although most economists think U.S. growth will slow in 2019, they also expect consumers to keep spending at a healthy level and prolong an expansion that will set a record for the longest ever by next summer.

What they are saying? “Today’s report appears to point toward somewhat faster growth in the fourth quarter than we have been forecasting,” said chief economist Joshua Shapiro of MFR Inc.

“Gas prices are down roughly 50 cents since early October, from around $2.90 to $2.40 per gallon, which if maintained through 2019 could represent more than $700 in savings in each household’s pocket,” wrote Lydia Boussour and Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics.

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.16% and S&P 500SPX, +1.07% fell in Friday trades on fresh worries about the global economy. Some indications suggest the Chinese economy is slowing, hindered in part by a festering trade spat with the U.S.

Also Read: Bridge to nowhere? Some doubts on economy justified, doom and gloom is not

The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.13% was little changed at 2.90%. Yields have tumbled from a seven-year high of almost 3.25% a month ago, a shift that makes stocks somewhat more favorable.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-off-to-good-start-as-the-holiday-season-gets-underway-2018-12-14

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

Latest Release

Dec 03, 2018

Actual

17.49M

Forecast

17.30M

Previous

17.57M

Total Vehicle Sales measures the annualized number of new vehicles sold domestically in the reported month. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also correlated to consumer confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Autodata Corp.

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

20142016201820152017201968101214161820201020142018

03/01/2014

Actual15.40M

Forecast16.00M

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/total-vehicle-sales-85

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

Latest Release

Nov 28, 2018

Actual

3.5%

Forecast

3.6%

Previous

3.5%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
Frequency: Released monthly. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, second release and Final. Both the advance the second release are tagged as preliminary in the economic calendar.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

30/04/2014

Actual0.1%

Forecast1.2%

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

Latest Release

Nov 28, 2018

Actual

3.5%

Forecast

3.6%

Previous

3.5%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.
Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency
Frequency: Released monthly. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, second release and Final. Both the advance the second release are tagged as preliminary in the economic calendar.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ

30/04/2014

Actual0.1%

Forecast1.2%

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/gdp-375

U.S. Existing Home Sales

Latest Release

Nov 21, 2018

Actual

5.22M

Forecast

5.20M

Previous

5.15M

Existing Home Sales measures the change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings that were sold during the previous month. This report helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic strength.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:National Association of Realto…

U.S. Existing Home Sales

2015201420162017201811.522.533.544.555.566.519802000

19/12/2013

Actual4.82M

Forecast5.03M

Revised From4.90M

Consumer Price Index (YoY) – United States

Last Release

Wed, Nov 14 2018
13:30 GMT

2.5%

Actual

2.5%

Consensus

2.3%

Previous

Next Release

Wed, Dec 12 2018
13:30 GMT

6 Days

19 Hours

34 Minutes

14 Seconds

The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

• Sector: Consumption & Inflation

https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/6f846eaa-9a12-43ab-930d-f059069c6646

 

The numbers: The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since the summer of 1973, reinforcing a downward trend in layoffs that’s likely to continue to set fresh lows in the months ahead.

So-called continuing claims fell by 8,000 to 1.62 million at the end of October, marking the lowest level since July 28, 1973. These claims reflect people who recently lost their jobs and are already receiving benefits.

The number of people who applied to receive benefits, meanwhile, fell slightly in early November to remaining near the lowest level in decades.

Initial jobless claims, a rough way to measure layoffs, dipped by 1,000 to 214,000 in the seven days ended Nov. 3, the government said Thursday. That was a bit higher than the 210,000 forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch.

The more stable monthly average of claims declined by 250 to 213,750.

Read: There’s still more jobs available than unemployed Americans

What happened: The level of layoffs in the U.S. have been falling for years amid a sustained surge in hiring that’s pulled the unemployment rate down to a 48-year low of 3.7%.

Initial claims have been have been below 220,000 for four and a half months, a remarkably long stretch of extremely low layoffs.

Read: It ’s prime time for Americans 25 to 54 years old

Big picture: The strongest labor market in decades is powering a U.S. economy that’s likely to set a record for the longest expansion ever by next year. The shrinking pool of available labor is also forcing companies to pay higher wages and benefits to attract workers, a good thing for Americans after years of slow pay growth.

Also read: Wages rise at fastest pace in nine years as U.S. adds 250,000 jobs in October

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.32% rose slightly in Thursday trades, but the S&P 500 SPX, -1.97% traded lower. Stocks soared the day before in the wake of the 2018 elections that split power between Democrats and Republicans. The outcome suggests a divided Washington won’t be able to do much to help or hinder businesses in the next few years.

The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% continued to creep higher and sat near 3.22%, just short of a seven-year high. Yields have been rising in anticipation of higher U.S. interest rates.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/number-of-americans-getting-unemployment-benefits-falls-to-lowest-level-since-july-1973-2018-11-08

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

Latest Release

Dec 03, 2018

Actual

17.49M

Forecast

17.30M

Previous

17.57M

Total Vehicle Sales measures the annualized number of new vehicles sold domestically in the reported month. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also correlated to consumer confidence.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Importance:

Country:

Currency:USD

Source:Autodata Corp.

U.S. Total Vehicle Sales

20142016201820152017201968101214161820201020142018

03/01/2014

Actual15.40M

Forecast16.00M

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/total-vehicle-sales-85

https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=485769&cust=us&year=2018&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top